A taste of what the future may hold

2007 anticipated to be the warmest year on record.

The big question everyone has been asking recently: is this incredibly mild weather a result of global warming/climate change? To an extent I believe it most definitely is. But El Nino is mostly to blame. However, no one knows for sure if there is a link between the two as the number of El Nino events has increased in the past decade or two alongside GHGs.

"British climate scientists predict that a resurgent El Niño climate trend combined with higher levels of greenhouse gases could touch off a fresh round of ecological disasters — and make 2007 the world's hottest year on record."

"The El Ninos have become increasingly severe and frequent through the 1980s and 1990, leading to suggestions that they are being affected by global warming, caused by an increase in heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the upper atmosphere. Global warming could make the El Nino a permanent feature of the world's weather system, warn some scientists. El Nino events occur on average every five years, and last up to 18 months. However research now suggests that they are now occurring every three years. In the last decade alone there have been five. "

The thing about El Nino and climate change is that it's not always about warm temperatures, it's more about random and extreme events - like the ice storm of '98. We've been lucky so far this winter to have had such pleasant weather but I can't see that lasting for too much longer. The weather network, one of my favorite channels, just gave their long range forecast and next Sunday is supposed to be 9 degrees with rain, the following day to be -10 with snow and the day after that back up to 4 degrees with more rain. That's an unusual temperature shift; mind you I'm sure that forecast will change five times between now and then.

It's nice that at least more and more people (especially the media and gov't) seem to be paying more attention, it's just too bad it had to get to this point before they bothered dealing with it. It's one thing to talk about taking action, but we desperately need to act now. As much as I despise John Baird, I really hope he gets something done. Of course, when the Conservatives came to power just last year, they cut most of the funding for climate change programs then came out with a "Made-in-Canada" plan with a Clean Air Act that was nothing more than a joke. Now all of a sudden it's their biggest priority. And what do you know... there is talk of a Spring election. Big surprise.

I feel sometimes like I'm looking in from the outside at a world stumbling carelessly toward the edge of a cliff, soon to plunge straight into the depths of hell. It's amazing to me how we've allowed ourselves to get this way. It's an absolute disgrace. We've come SO far in the past few hundred years and especially in the last century, and we're throwing all that away because we're too focused on trivial things when we should be extremely grateful for and enjoying every single moment of our frivolous way of life, not to mention the incredibly beautiful planet with which we live and entirely depend on for survival. It's so illogical to me and I just can't understand this stupidity.

There are lots of great people out there doing incredibly good things for humanity and the planet, but unfortunately all their effort is not nearly enough to fix all our problems. There are so many people that would rather ignore these horrible things and go on living in the fantasy world, pretending like everything is ok and relying on the government to take care of these problems (while most of the people I know that go on this way, don't even vote!). Our survival requires millions -- billions of people to collectively change the way they think and live. But soon enough we won't have that option.

We live in a society where more and more things are disposable. I think what people don't tend to think about is that there is no 'away' to throw things to. Unless these items are biodegradable, which the majority aren't and most contain harmful chemicals, these items get shipped off to the landfills where they will sit and rot for decades. It's really horrible and people just don't think about those things. They would rather have the convenience of buying a Swiffer and be able to just toss the dirty cloth in the garbage and that's it - you're all done. It's disgusting to me and absolutely unnecessary.

Obviously, I care very strongly about these issues even though some days I wonder what's the point, and really just wish everyone else was on the same page as me. I know that will never happen which is very sad and discouraging, but I must go on trying to convince people to change their habits, even if it means I annoy the hell outta my friends. Some people laugh at me for some of my comments, and that's fine, I laugh along with them, but I don't think they completely understand exactly how serious I am when I say certain things like "could you please turn off your car" or "you better recycle that bottle!". Every single action we take needs to be taken with much greater responsibility. People absolutely must consider the result of their actions.

"Over the next two or three decades, we will see a trend of just more frequent warm spells and less frequent cold snaps," said Jerry Meehl, a climatologist.

But these changes are not limited to just warm weather. Colorado's third big snowfall in a month also fits a pattern long predicted for global warming.

The warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold, which leads to heavier precipitation of rain or snow.

Scientists say there are always immediate causes contributing to warm spells, such as the current warm El Nino patch that's appeared again in the Pacific.

But El Nino, like everything in earth's climate, is influenced one way or another by manmade global warming.

Climate scientists in the United Kingdom calculate that the current El Nino, combined with the additional warming effect of the increasing manmade greenhouse gases mean a better-than-even chance that 2007 will be the hottest year on earth since records have been kept.

The 10 hottest years on record have been in the past 11 years.

If you're still not convinced...

It's all about extremes...and they're happening all over the world.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a statement on the global climate on December 14, 2006.

“The global mean surface temperature in 2006 is currently estimated to be + 0.42°C above the 1961-1990 annual average (14°C). That may not seem like a lot but if you're aware of the effects of temperature changes + rates of reactions.. it's pretty significant in such a short time period.

The year 2006 is currently estimated to be the sixth warmest year on record. Final figures will not be released until March 2007.

Averaged separately for both hemispheres, 2006 surface temperatures for the northern hemisphere are likely to be the fourth warmest and for the southern hemisphere the seventh warmest in the instrumental record from 1861 to the present.

Since 1976, the global average temperature has risen sharply, at 0.18°C per decade. In the northern and southern hemispheres, the period 1997-2006 averaged 0.53°C and 0.27°C above the 1961-1990 mean, respectively.

The beginning of 2006 was unusually mild in large parts of North America and the western European Arctic islands, though there were harsh winter conditions in Asia, the Russian Federation and parts of eastern Europe.

Canada experienced its mildest winter and spring on record, the USA its warmest January-September on record and the monthly temperatures in the Arctic island of Spitsbergen for January and April included new highs with anomalies of +12.6°C and +12.2°C, respectively.

Persistent extreme heat affected much of eastern Australia from late December 2005 until early March with many records being set. Spring 2006 (September-November) was Australia’s warmest since seasonal records were first compiled in 1950. Heat waves were also registered in Brazil from January until March (e.g. 44.6°C in Bom Jesus on 31 January – one of the highest temperatures ever recorded in Brazil).

Several parts of Europe and the USA experienced heat waves with record temperatures in July and August. Air temperatures in many parts of the USA reached 40°C or more. The July European-average land-surface air temperature was the warmest on record at 2.7°C above the climatological normal.

Autumn 2006 (September-November) was exceptional in large parts of Europe at more than 3°C warmer than the climatological normal from the north side of the Alps to southern Norway. In many countries it was the warmest autumn since official measurements began: records in central England go back to 1659 (1706 in The Netherlands and 1768 in Denmark).”

Who's full of hot air???

Gore's full of hot air: Day
By Sheila Dabu

OTTAWA (CP) - A November cold snap prompted Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day to dismiss Al Gore's climate change crusade in a weblog post brimming with mockery. Day's letter to his constituents in the British Columbia riding of Okanagan-Coquihalla constituents last week opened with a shot at the former U.S. vice-president. "Hey who knows, maybe Al Gore is right," Day wrote in the post dated Dec. 6.

"Maybe all my constituents living high up on the West Bench, or Lakeview Heights, or the hills of Logan Lake will soon be sitting on lakeside property as one of the many benefits of global warming."

Gore has long campaigned against what he believes is government inaction on climate change. His documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, did record business. Polls suggest the Conservatives' environmental package has been a dud with voters. Those same surveys suggest the environment could be a ballot-box issue.

When asked about the blog after question period, Day walked away from reporters and refused to comment.
Day wrote that a recent cold snap had him "begging for Big Al's Glacial Melt when the mercury hit -24."
About 22 towns and cities in British Columbia "had broken all-time records for paralyzing frigid temperatures," Day wrote.

But the Minister for Public Safety said that "rather than feeling badly for yourself," constituents should consider the upside: "For every hour it's that cold, millions of those nasty ravenous pine beetles who are destroying our forests are having their pesky little heads and jaws frozen, literally to death."

John Bennett, senior policy adviser at the Sierra Club of Canada, said Day's comments are symptomatic of the government's position on the environment. "What the blog demonstrates is what the government of Canada really thinks about climate change, that it is something to joke about, not something to take seriously and the policies of the government reflect that," he said.

Bennett added that the Harper government cut almost all climate change programs when it came into power.
The government began disassembling Canada's Climate Change Program last March when programs announced in Action Plan 2000 were not renewed.

Liberal environment critic John Godfrey said Day's punch line was lost on him. "The problem is that when a senior cabinet minister, laughs away and dismisses the greatest challenge facing the planet today . . . and reduces it to, 'Well, it's snowing, therefore, where's climate change, and even if there was climate change, maybe everyone would be happy because they'd have beach front property,' this is to trivialize a huge problem for the planet," Godfrey said.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May said she wasn't surprised by Day's comments. "Mr. Stockwell Day sums up what David Suzuki said about parliamentarians, that they're all ignoramuses," May said in a telephone interview. (yay David Suzuki!)

These comments reflect his ignorance about his own portfolio as minister of public safety, May said.

"The most significant threat to Canadian security is climate change, not terrorism."

Climate change is affecting New Brunswick's coast

Environment Canada researchers who have spent the last three years monitoring New Brunswick's eastern coastline have concluded sea water levels are on the rise. The scientists will release a study Tuesday morning in Moncton, explaining how climate change is affecting New Brunswick's coast.

The New Brunswick Sea Level Rise Project got its start after several storm surges hit the New Brunswick shoreline in January 2000. Pounding waves ate away metres of sandy coastline and several communities were flooded.
Residents of communities along the Northumberland coast have been complaining that storm surges are on the rise, and during the past three years, scientists have confirmed that evidence.Project co-ordinator Real Daigle says storms are likely to worsen as sea levels continue to rise.

On Tuesday morning, Daigle will unveil a series of maps showing specific areas where the water level is having an impact. He'll also show detailed images of erosion along the southeastern coast of New Brunswick.
Daigle says the new research will help communities react to changing weather patterns. "We look at adaptation options: what people can do to adapt to sea level rises, and the existing problems that we are seeing right now."

New study on rate of Arctic melting

Global warming could melt almost all of the ice in the Arctic during the summer months by the year 2040, according to a study to be published Tuesday.

If greenhouse gases continue to build at their current rate, the study found, the Arctic's ice cover would go through periods of stability followed by abrupt retreat.

One simulation projects that by 2040, only a small amount of perennial ice would remain on the north coasts of Greenland and Canada during the summer months. This would be a more dramatic change in Arctic climate than anything we've seen so far, according to McGill University professor Bruno Tremblay, one of the study's authors. And it would also have a profound impact on global warming around the world, he said.

"Open water absorbs more sunlight than does ice," Tremblay told CBC News Online. "This means that the growing regions of ice-free water will accelerate the warming trend."

The melting of polar ice creates a positive feedback loop, Tremblay said. Higher temperatures means less ice, and that means more sunlight is absorbed by water, which in turn raises temperatures. This will lead to an accelerated change in climate in a very short time, Tremblay said.

Scenarios simulated on supercomputers suggest sea ice could diminish enough within 20 years to speed the retreat of Arctic ice four-times faster than at any other time in the observed record. "Right now there is a steady decline. But we're going to reach a tipping point where the decline will happen very quickly and [from which] we can't recover," he said.

Tremblay worked on the study — to be published in the Dec. 12 issue of Geophysical Research Letters — with lead researcher Marika Holland at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research and Cecilia Bitz of the University of Washington. The only way to prevent the rapid loss of polar ice is to implement aggressive measures to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels (get your butt in gear, Stephen Harper!), Tremblay said. Previous studies looking at the Canadian Arctic have envisaged similar timetables for the disappearance of permanent ice floes.

In June 2006, University of British Columbia professor Michael Byers said the Northwest Passage would be clear of ice during the summer months in 25 years. A 2004 study by André Rochon, chief scientist on Canada's Amundsen research icebreaker, predicted the waterways would be clear of ice in 50 years.

Castles, cobblestone and the Alps.

I definitely plan to travel to Europe; it's probably in the top 3 places on my long list of places to travel to. Castles, cobblestone streets, valleys and of course the incredible mountains encompassing the gorgeous valleys -- the Alps.

Speaking of the Alps.. what's going on in the Alps these days?

VIENNA, Austria — Europe's Alpine region is going through its warmest period in 1,300 years, the head of an extensive climate study said Tuesday.

"We are currently experiencing the warmest period in the Alpine region in 1,300 years," Reinhard Boehm, a climatologist at Austria's Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics said.

Boehm based his comments on the results of a project conducted by a group of European institutes between March 2003 and August 2006. Their aim was to reconstruct the climate in the region encompassing the Rhone Valley in France to the west, Budapest, Hungary to the east, Tuscany, Italy to the south and Nuremberg, Germany to the north over the past 1,000 years.

Boehm said the current warm period in the Alpine region began in the 1980s, noting that a similar warming occurred in the 10th and 12th centuries. However, the temperatures during those phases were "slightly under the temperatures we've experienced over the past 20 years."

Humans first had an impact on the global climate in the 1950s, Boehm said, noting that at first, the release of aerosols into the atmosphere cooled the climate. Since the 1980s, however, greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane have warmed it up, he said. "It will undoubtedly get warmer in the future," Boehm said.

Sponsored by the European Union, the project sought to homogenize climate data collected in the Alpine region over the past 250 years. Climate reconstruction focused on seven parameters, including temperature, sunshine periods and cloud cover. Tree rings and ice core measurements were also taken into consideration.

The unseasonably warm weather this autumn has caused concern in Austria's ski resorts, where slopes are still largely covered in green grass instead of snow. Many, such as St. Anton am Arlberg, have had to postpone the start of their skiing season and some have tried attracting tourists with alternative programs, such as hiking.

Austrian ski resorts usually open at the end of November or early December. Wilma Himmelfreundpointner, deputy director of the St. Anton Tourist Office, said the resort has the capability to cover 80 percent of its slopes with fake snow. But the current mild temperatures and sunshine make that an impossible option at the moment, she said.

"What can you do? One can't change the weather," Himmelfreundpointer said, adding some tourists go on day trips to nearby glaciers in order to ski.

In some cases, organizers have had to be creative to make sure their events take place as planned. In Hochfilzen, Tyrol, organizers of an upcoming international race went to the Grossglockner -- Austria's highest mountain -- to get snow they needed to prepare their track.

It took about five days to truck between 7,000 and 8,000 cubic metres (9,200 - 10,500 cubic yards) of snow from the Grossglockner, said organizer Thomas Abfalter.

War, what is it good for?

Excerpt from an article posted on rabble.ca that I thought was incredibly well written so here it is for your reading pleasure:

Most wars, aside from repelling invaders, are struggles for land and resources and political control. Politics itself, of course, is little more than a struggle over how to divide the wealth in society.

In most cases those who go to war believing that they are doing it for their country or their freedoms, are deluded believers in a fantasy spread by the ruling classes to disguise the true nature of what they are about.

The truth about war is that it is a business, a centre of profit for the suppliers of war materials and for those who reap the benefits of resources acquired or controlled, the political clout to force other societies to do one's will, and the political benefits at home of a population manipulated by patriotic fervour that will put aside common sense and tolerate a suppression of their liberties and squandering of public resources under the guise of “supporting the troops.”

One of the U.S. Marine Corps' most highly decorated officers, Major General Smedley Butler, wrote in 1935: “War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious.”

And in his 1961 farewell address as President of the United States, Dwight Eisenhower warned “... we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”

Both Butler and Eisenhower were high ranking professional soldiers who had not only seen war, but had knowledge of what was behind the scenes and how it worked. They certainly have more credibility then the current crop of world leaders — many of whom have never heard a shot fired in anger or seen up close the broken and mutilated bodies of war's victims — and the warnings that they gave us are just as valid today as they were when first given.

Those people foolishly demonstrating in support of the war today ought to reflect on the vision of Butler and of Eisenhower. They would be well advised to consider that a large number of senior military officers in the U.S. opposed the war in Iraq and that in Canada Lt. General Jeffrey, former Chief of Defence Staff, advised against the Afghanistan mission, and Major General Ross, director-general of international security policy, resigned over it.

As a result of the decision by Canada's government to choose the defence industry and the Americans over its soldiers and the national welfare, we not only have troops dying needlessly in Afghanistan, we have a military so desperate for more bodies that it is looking at longer periods of deployment, lowering recruiting standards, and considering raiding the Navy and non-combat sections of the Forces for more fodder for the war zone. This is not something that anyone should be supporting.

It is the time of year that we remember all of those who have been sacrificed in the wars of the nation, regardless of the truth of the war, and honour them as heroes. Many were heroes, those who sacrificed themselves for their comrades, and who endured things that no person should ever have to endure.

But more than heroes they were and are victims, and most of all that is what we should never forget.

--
Jerry West is the editor of The Record, an independent, progressive newspaper published every other Wednesday in Gold River, British Columbia. His columns regularly appear in rabble.ca.

A Stern Warning

Tuesday October 31, 2006 - The Guardian

The report by Sir Nicholas Stern, a former chief World Bank economist, represents a huge contrast to the U.S. government's wait-and-see global warming policies.

The overwhelming message of yesterday's review on the economics of climate change is that it is now time to move on from arguing about statistics to taking drastic action at an international level.

Most of the facts contained in the report will not come as a surprise to people who have been following the debate but that is not the point. It is aimed at an international audience and amounts to a devastatingly convincing argument of the urgent need for all of us to change our energy-guzzling behaviour and all the more so coming from an internationally respected economist.

The figures speak for themselves. A rise in temperatures of between 5C and 6C, which is "a real possibility for the next century" could trigger a global loss of economic wealth (GDP) of 10% with poorer countries, which have contributed least to the problem, suffering most of the damage.

A "worst case" scenario could cut GDP by 20%" with global floods displacing 100m people and drought creating hundreds of millions of "climate refugees". He emphasises the seriousness of the figures by reminding people that the world is only 5C warmer now than in the last ice age.

Targets alone are not enough, as has become clear in the UK. The prime minister talks sense but emission-reduction targets have been missed. Gordon Brown, whose ownership of this review has a domestic political motive as well as an international one, also has a mixed record: he chickened out of continuing the fuel duty escalator (introduced by the Tories) and is even now cutting back spending on environmental issues such as flood protection.

The unambiguous message from Stern is that politicians have no alternative: action must be taken on a world scale. Yet on recent experience global institutions are not up to the task.

The institutions are there: the G8 group of leading economies, the G20 - which includes the main developing nations - and the organisations that try to run the Kyoto agreement. What is lacking is for the world's politicians to think beyond the confines of the next four or five years, and to consider a statesmanlike span of 50 years or more, because what is at stake is not the electability of a political party but the survival of the planet.

Environmentalists, many of whom welcomed the Stern report as a needed "wake-up call," have said the Kyoto accord must be replaced by a more binding commitment.

Canada is committed to cutting its emissions six per cent from 1990 levels by 2012, but emissions are now up about 35 per cent from 1990, and Harper and the Conservatives maintain the targets are unachievable.

The argument is now over. Even if Stern is only half right, the consequence of doing nothing is still so dreadful that it ought not to be contemplated.

Record Setting Snowstorm

Thousands of homes were left without power yesterday after a record-setting snowstorm hit southern Ontario.

Winds of up to 90 km/h combined with as much as 30 centimetres of thick wet snow in Fort Erie, knocked over trees and power lines, leaving almost 15,000 homes without electricity. There hasn't been a snowier October day in the Fort Erie region in the last hundred years, said David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada.

It was worse across the border in Buffalo where 60 centimetres fell, the worst October storm in Buffalo's history. An estimated 350,000 businesses and homes were left without power, three people were reported dead in weather-related accidents and many feared losing their water supply when a pumping station was knocked out in nearby Amherst.